The anatomy of a Premier League January transfer

The January transfer window is upon us - but is it worth splashing the cash mid-season? We tried to find a method amid the madness.

First things first: you’re (almost certainly) going to pay the odds in January. If you need something, everyone knows it. If opponents know you are in need they will overcharge because selling will in turn leave them short.

Fulham and Leicester are among the teams to break their transfer record in recent years – on Kostas Mitroglou and Andrej Kramaric, respectively – with remarkably poor results. Between them, those two forwards – costing a combined £20 million – have three Premier League goals in a year and a half in England.

Then there was the infamous January of 2011. Liverpool spent £58m on Andy Carroll and Luis Suarez and cashed in £50m when Fernando Torres moved to Chelsea. Suarez eventually became a brilliant signing but took a while to settle; the path from Eredivisie to Premier League is well-trodden and players usually need a while to find their feet.

The fee for Torres was arguably the most outlandish ever and proved to be a terrible misjudgement on Chelsea’s part, while Carroll was signed on the back of his first spell of Premier League form rather than top flight pedigree (more on that below).

£50m proved to be just a little over the odds

Juan Mata, Wilfried Bony, Juan Cuadrado and Chris Samba are just four more overpriced January transfers – who had decidedly mixed success – and could probably have been lured for cheaper in the summer. None had such immediate effect that their hefty winter fees could really be justified.

There are of course some outliers in the likes of Daniel Sturridge and Philippe Coutinho, both of whom were steals for Liverpool but bargains of that calibre are risks that happened to pay off.

Verdict: Be ready to pay over the odds, so only buy if you need to

Age

Essentially, buying too young in January rarely works. The pressure for an immediate impact is often simply too great and even the new-found idea of purchasing and then loaning straight back can end up failing.

Wilfried Zaha signed for Manchester United in January 2013, swiftly lost the support of his adoring Crystal Palace fans for the second half of the season and then failed to make any kind of impression at Old Trafford, instead farmed out to Cardiff on loan. He is now back at Palace probably regretting ever leaving.

Zaha ended up on loan at Cardiff

Kevin De Bruyne moved from Genk to Chelsea in January 2012 before going straight back on loan but has ended up at Manchester City via Werder Bremen and Wolfsburg. Chelsea barely showed any real belief in him.

The sheer level of expectation weighs heavy on youngsters and insufficient time to settle can be problematic. Dele Alli has become a success at Spurs but signing him in January was just to ensured he was tied down. He is a rarity in that he was signed to the Premier League from the lower divisions and has taken to it quickly. Generally, youngsters struggle.

Verdict: If you want to improve the first team, don’t bother with youth in January

Form

Form is temporary; class is permanent, as the adage goes. Nowhere else in football can form be as misleading and deceiving as in the effect it has on fees in the January transfer window.

For example, there is no doubting that Jamie Vardy and Riyad Mahrez are both very good players but the fact that Leicester manager Claudio Ranieri now reckons ‘nobody can buy them’ in the winter window because ‘they don’t have the money’ is frankly ridiculous.

Mahrez's form has led to talk of an inflated fee

There would be no sense in Leicester selling their prized assets midway through the season but there is also every chance that neither player will go on to be a consistent performer worth in the region of the £40m fee that has been bandied about.

Similarly, Carroll may have been worth £35m to the Newcastle side for whom he was scoring freely, but he was worth nothing like that to Liverpool. The fact that he was in form affected his price tag.

Harry Kane has been allocated a similar price tag but he is still yet to prove that last season wasn’t just a purple patch. Nothing can disrupt a run of form like the weight of a hefty transfer fee.

Verdict: Beware. Form at one club is no guarantee of class at another.

Experience

It is rare for a player with no experience of life, football and pressure in England to take to the Premier League with ease when joining in January.

Mo Salah, Edin Dzeko, Suarez, Mitroglu and Kramaric are just a few that struggled for the rest of the season after their moves. They grew into their roles with varying success, but the fact remains that it is exceptionally difficult to adapt to both a new team and a new league mid-season.

Cisse fit straight in on Tyneside

The likes of Nikica Jelavic, Papiss Demba Cisse – who scored 13 goals in 14 games in his first six months at St James’ Park – and Arsenal’s Nacho Monreal and Gabriel show that it can be done but the success stories are far less frequent than those who struggle.

Sturridge, Gary Cahill, Darren Bent and Louis Saha, all with Premier League experience, have made recent January moves and had an effect straight away.

Verdict: Premier League experience preferable

Compatibility

Andy Carroll suited Newcastle; he did not suit Liverpool. Wilfried Bony was worth his weight in gold to Swansea; he is only a bit-part player for City. Wilf Zaha was a key Crystal Palace player but wasn’t the right fit at Old Trafford.

Carroll was not suited to Liverpool's style of play

Compatibility will always be a key consideration, but desperation in January can cause clubs to disregard the need for a player that fits their system rather than just looking to sign someone who is thriving at another club.

Verdict: Do your research

Nationality

There is very little in terms of a pattern here. Often English players do well, but there are striking anomalies, while Frenchmen tend to settle well perhaps thanks to a similar climate and a short journey home when they want it, but again that is by no means without exception. South Americans also fare rather well for the most part and eastern Europeans have trouble.

Verdict: Cross your fingers and hope for the best

Daniel Sturridge: an instant hit at Anfield

So, there are a few pointers to take into account when considering your January transfer targets but it is also worth bearing in mind that deals at this time of year are riddled with even more risk than normal.

Signings can provide much-needed reinforcement and depth but there remains a greater possibility than in the summer that players will fall by the wayside. Proceed into January with plenty of caution.

Five Greatest Liverpool vs Manchester United Matches Featuring the Reds’ 4-1 win in 2009

Manchester United versus Liverpool is the most trophy-laden rivalry in English football, having won the League title more than any other team in the country. Both teams will go head-to-head on Saturday at Old Trafford, hoping to kick start their season with a win. Undoubtedly the most anticipated fixture in the football calendar, with everything at stake – quite simply, defeat is not an option. We look back at 5 memorable matches between the great rivals.

Manchester United vs Liverpool

Liverpool 2-1 Man United, Milk Cup Final 1983

Before Carling and Capital One, there was Milk. With almost 100,000 fans in attendance during the Milk Cup Final, Ron Atkinson was looking to win his first trophy as the Red Devil’s manager.

This was also Bob Paisley’s last major final in charge of Liverpool and his team gave him a fitting farewell after coming back from behind to win the Cup. United took the lead after Norman Whiteside’s early opener but Alan Kennedy scored late in the game to stretch the match into extra time, before Ronnie Whelan scored a superb goal to seal Liverpool’s third consecutive League Cup.

Liverpool 3-3 Manchester United, Premier League 1994

Liverpool produced one of the great Premier League comebacks against a United team managed by Alex Ferguson in 1994. United took a 3-0 lead within the first 24 minutes only to see their lead wiped out by an astonishing turnaround.

With United up 3 goals to nil, Liverpool looked completely devastated at their home ground but two goals by Nigel Clough turned the game on its head, with United holding on Neil ‘Razor’ Ruddock headed in a dramatic equalizer which led to wild celebrations in the stands.

Liverpool 2-1 Manchester United, Premier League 2008

Ryan Babel was hardly a fan favorite during his time at Anfield but he did have this one glorious moment against Manchester United for which he will be remembered forever after. Carlos Tevez had given the visitors the lead after debutant Dimitar Berbatov found him unmarked in the box but the celebrations soon turned sour after Edwin Van der Sar palmed an attempted clearance against Wes Brown and saw it roll in for the equaliser.

With the clock ticking down Javier Mascherano stole the ball away from Ryan Giggs and Babel turned in Dirk Kuyt’s subsequent pass to Rafa Benitez his first victory over Manchester United that too without Steven Gerrard and Fernando Torres.

Fernando Torres

Manchester United 1-4 Liverpool, Premier League 2009

Though United were the defending Champions and League leaders at the time, this match was surely Liverpool’s finest performance at Old Trafford in recent history. A motivated Liverpool side took apart United to breathe some life back into hopes of a first league title in the Premier League era.

Cristiano Ronaldo had given the home side the lead from the penalty spot but soon but Fernando Torres capitalised on an uncharacteristic mistake from Nemanja Vidic to equal the score. Steven Gerrard put Liverpool ahead with a penalty before another Vidic error saw the defender sent off. An audacious Fabio Aurelio free-kick and Andrea Dossena’s lob over Edwin van der Sar completed the rout.

Manchester United 0-3 Liverpool, Premier League 2014

David Moye’s time at United was filled with major disappointments but few could match the depths of quite like this performance against Liverpool in March last year. Liverpool dominated the game from the start but only managed to take the lead after Gerrard converted from the spot following a Rafael handball.

Steven Gerrard

Soon after the restart, Liverpool won another penalty after Phil Jones clumsily fouled Joe Allen in the box and Steven Gerrard matched his result from the previous penalty. The Liverpool captain though did miss one penalty later in the game but Luiz Suarez soon added a third anyway.

THEY’VE won the English title more than any other teams and lifted the European Cup more often than anyone else in the land too. Liverpool v Manchester United is as big as it gets.

But before the two face each other on Sunday morning from 2.15am AEST on Fox Sports 503, which games stand out?

We look back at 10 memorable Premier League matches between the great rivals …

MANCHESTER UNITED 2-2 LIVERPOOL IN 1992

The first game between the two teams since the advent of the EPL came in October 1992 at Old Trafford, pitting Sir Alex Ferguson’s United against Graeme Souness’ Liverpool. The visitors looked set for a win too when Don Hutchison’s deflected strike gave them the lead and Ian Rush later doubled the advantage with his 287th goal — surpassing Roger Hunt’s club record.

But United produced the sort of comeback that was to typify their decade. With 12 minutes remaining Mark Hughes came up with a wonderful lobbed volley after substitute Clayton Blackmore chipped the ball into his path. Hughes then seized upon a Ryan Giggs pass to equalise in the final minute and earn United an unlikely point. Even Ferguson admitted it was fortunate: “We didn’t play particularly well and perhaps we didn’t deserve a point.”

Souness was frustrated: “With a bit more ringcraft and fieldcraft we would probably have won,” he said.

But it was to prove an indicator of what was to come. The previous season had been the first since 1968 that United had finished above Liverpool and 1992-93 saw them go one better and win the title for the first time since 1967. Liverpool eventually finished sixth for a second successive season — their joint lowest finish in 28 years.

LIVERPOOL 3-3 MANCHESTER UNITED IN 1994

Liverpool produced one of the great EPL comebacks in an iconic encounter from the 1993-94 season. United took a three-goal lead midway through the first half only to see their advantage wiped out by astonishing turnaround. As Jamie Redknapp recalls, that didn’t look on the cards when Steve Bruce headed United in front from Eric Cantona’s cross.

“The first quarter of the game was a nightmare for us,” Redknapp told Sky Sports. “Bruce had already scored, and then I gave a short pass back to Mark Wright, and Giggs went round him and chipped a goal in for United’s second. We were all struggling. We were soon 3-0 down and in a fixture of that enormity, you want the ground to swallow you up. You’re at home to your biggest rivals, and you’re getting outclassed.”

Two goals by Nigel Clough turned the game on its head and with the visitors holding on, Neil Ruddock headed in a dramatic equaliser to send Anfield wild with delight. “When we got back to 3-2, you could sense the crowd knew something special was happening,” added Redknapp. “It really was an amazing night. The atmosphere was fierce. It makes your hair stand on end.”

MANCHESTER UNITED 2-2 LIVERPOOL IN 1995

This fixture marked the return of Eric Cantona after serving an eight-month suspension for his infamous kung-fu kick.

Typically, he had an immediate impact — just 67 seconds into the game, to be precise — in crossing for Nicky Butt to open the scoring. Robbie Fowler threatened to spoil the comeback with goals either side of half-time but when Jamie Redknapp was adjudged to have fouled Giggs, Cantona had the final word from the penalty spot.

Liverpool boss Roy Evans was unimpressed by referee David Elleray’s role: “It is a sad story when the referee thinks he has equal billing with Eric Cantona,” said Evans. “I thought Cantona passed the test but the referee did not. We deserved more than we got. We lost two points on a dodgy decision.”

Ferguson just seemed relieved the drama was over. “Eric did well,” he said. “He’s tired, of course, but he can be pleased with his performance. And the hype’s over, thank goodness.”

LIVERPOOL 2-3 MANCHESTER UNITED IN 1999

Once is misfortune but twice is carelessness. Jamie Carragher will not have fond memories of this Anfield defeat in 1999 after twice beating his own goalkeeper. The Liverpool defender headed beyond Sander Westerveld inside three minutes and when Andy Cole netted from a trademark David Beckham free-kick things looked routine for the league and European champions.

But Massimo Taibi, otherwise impressive on debut in the United goal, gave Liverpool a route back when he failed to claim a free-kick and Sami Hyypia pulled one back. A second Carragher own-goal from another Beckham free-kick restored United’s two-goal lead but when Patrik Berger scored and Cole received a second yellow for taking a swipe at Rigobert Song, it made for a grandstand finish. Substitute Michael Owen did toe-poke just wide but the comeback was to no avail.

MANCHESTER UNITED 1-0 LIVERPOOL IN 2006

Despite featuring a last-minute winner for Manchester United courtesy of a Rio Ferdinand header, this was a game more noteworthy for the bad blood that followed. Jose Mourinho’s Chelsea won the title that year but this fixture isn’t all about trophies as Gary Neville’s actions showed.

The United full-back’s decision to run the length of the field to celebrate the winner in front of the visiting Liverpool fans caused controversy. Neville was unapologetic.

“I would have been apologetic if I’d run up to one of their players and tried to belittle them but this was a celebration,” he told the Times. “What are you meant to do? Smile sweetly and jog back to the halfway line?”

Monday Night Football colleague Jamie Carragher had a different view. “I think there is a line and Neville crossed it. I’ve heard people say it’s justified because he gets a lot of stick from our fans but the truth is he gets stick as he’s been doing that for years.”

LIVERPOOL 2-1 MANCHESTER UNITED IN 2008

Ryan Babel’s time at Anfield was far from glorious but he did have this moment — a late Anfield winner against Manchester United — to cherish. Ryan Giggs was robbed by Javier Mascherano and Babel turned in Dirk Kuyt’s subsequent pass to give Liverpool boss Rafael Benitez earned his first Premier League win over United despite the absence of Steven Gerrard and Fernando Torres.

Carlos Tevez had given the visitors the lead after turning in a pull back from United debutant Dimitar Berbatov but things soon turned sour for them when Edwin van der Sar palmed an attempted clearance against Wes Brown and saw it roll in for the equaliser. There was no way back from Babel’s winner with Nemanja Vidic capping a miserable afternoon by seeing red late on.

MANCHESTER UNITED 1-4 LIVERPOOL IN 2009

Manchester United were the defending champions and league leaders at the time but found themselves taken apart at Old Trafford by a motivated Liverpool team. Cristiano Ronaldo had given the home side the lead from the penalty spot but Fernando Torres forced a mistake from Nemanja Vidic soon after and United capitulated.

Steven Gerrard put Liverpool ahead — also with a penalty — before inducing another Vidic error that saw the defender sent off.

Fabio Aurelio curled home the resulting free-kick, before Andrea Dossena capped an amazing afternoon for Liverpool by lobbing Edwin van der Sar. Ferguson was less than magnanimous: “I thought we were the better team, but the score doesn’t reflect that,” he said.

Rafa Benitez preferred to look ahead. “If we are going to win the title we are going to need three points from every game and United to drop some more.” It didn’t happen and Liverpool fell four points short.

MANCHESTER UNITED 3-2 LIVERPOOL IN 2010

Dimitar Berbatov’s career at United began with a defeat to Liverpool and that seemed to set the tone for the following two seasons in which he scored just 26 goals in 86 appearances. But things improved at the start of the 2010-11 campaign, with Berbatov scoring in four of his first five appearances. Finally he was in form and he duly put United two goals up against Liverpool in the early season derby game.

Gerrard threatened to scupper things, scoring a penalty to pull one back and then levelling the scores with 20 minutes remaining courtesy of a 20-yard free-kick. But Berbatov completed his hat-trick — the first by a United player against Liverpool since 1946 — when he rose above Jamie Carragher to convert John O’Shea’s cross. It felt like the moment from which the mercurial forward would go on to justify his vast price tag.

“You must persevere and trust your judgment, you must have faith, and I think we are being rewarded this season for our confidence in him,” said Ferguson afterwards. In a sense, Berbatov delivered. The Bulgarian finished the season as the Premier League joint-top scorer. But Ferguson failed to live by his own words — choosing to omit Berbatov from his squad for the 2011 Champions League Final against Barcelona at the end of that season.

LIVERPOOL 3-1 MANCHESTER UNITED IN 2011

Dirk Kuyt was the unlikely hat-trick hero for Liverpool as he became the first Liverpool player to score a treble against Manchester United since Peter Beardsley in 1990. Luis Suarez was the catalyst for all three goals as Liverpool got the better of a United side unexpectedly faltering in their push for the Premier League title.

Sir Alex Ferguson’s men had been unbeaten in 23 games at the start of the league season but this was their third reverse in a month and second in a week to allow Arsenal to close within three points with a game in hand. The Red Devils held on to claim the title but this Anfield result marked a memorable high point in Kenny Dalglish’s second spell in charge.

MANCHESTER UNITED 0-3 LIVERPOOL IN 2014

David Moyes’ time in charge of Manchester United was littered with lows but few plumbed the depths quite like this miserable surrender against Liverpool in March. The visitors dominated early on and finally took the lead in front of the Stretford End when Rafael’s handball allowed Gerrard to open the scoring from the spot. Soon after the restart, Phil Jones clumsily fouled Joe Allen and Gerrard converted again.

The Liverpool skipper might have made it a hat-trick of penalties but squandered the opportunity when Vidic was adjudged to have fouled Daniel Sturridge — and was sent off for his troubles too — but Luis Suarez soon added a third anyway.

“It’s a nightmare,” said Wayne Rooney. “It’s one of the worst days I’ve ever had in football.” Moyes, meanwhile, had an admission: “I think the job was always going to be hard but if you are asking me is it harder than I thought, I would say so, yes.” He was sacked the following month.